iPhone Shortage Points to New Model?

With news of an iPhone shortage, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster figures an 80% chance that a new iPhone is coming. He gives only a 20% chance that there is a production or manufacturing problem.

Now Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has gone a little further, reporting that hes called around to 20 Apple stores around the U.S. and found the same thing. No iPhones to be had. Additionally, lead times on delivery of iPhones from Apple.com is still 5-7 days.

This leads him to believe two possibilities. 1) A new iPhone is coming sooner than originally expected or 2) Theres a production or manufacturing problem. He figures the chances that a new iPhone are coming at about 80%.