Apple's decision to launch the 128 GB iPad in February seems to make rumors of a new model in March or April appear unlikely, suggesting the fall as a more likely time for a refresh.
iLounge was among the sites to suggest a Spring 2013 date for the launch of the iPad 5, although the site has since backtracked from that claim to suggest that the device will be arriving in or around October. The generally reliable KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has also predicted a Q3 launch.
World of Apple's Alex Brooks notes that Apple's release of the 128 GB iPad next week lends weight to the idea that Apple will henceforth be returning to an annual release cycle for new iPad models, keeping the tablet more closely in line with iPhone launches and major iOS updates.
This is where the 128GB iPad comes in, the release sends a clear message that despite rumours to the contrary Apple will not release a new iPad in March or April and the next update to the iPad will come in October alongside the second iPad mini, iOS 7 and will ready Apple for another blockbuster year end.
Brooks notes that it would be strange for Apple to return to releasing the iPad midway through the iPhone/iOS cycle, suggesting that the double update for the iPad in 2012 was an opportunity to both align the iPad with the launch schedule for the rest of Apple's device lineup and iOS and to make a wholesale shift to the new Lightning connector.
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i'm pretty sure that is, in fact, exactly what they are doing.
October seems like the obvious choice for updating the whole iPad segment (retina display on the mini and a new redesigned retina iPad) and also to release the 5S and iOS 7. I don't really think that iOS 6 will receive any further updates until then. They'll probably keep improving the maps service and concentrate on a new iOS which will surely have at least major app redesigns.
The iPhone launching in June and the iPad following in September/October makes sense to properly align SoC development. The iPad uses an expanded GPU version of the iPhone SoC, so it's better that in each calendar year the iPhone introduces the A_ first and the iPad comes after with the A_X rather than being based on the previous year's SoC.
Aren't they having enough issues meeting demand as it is without squeezing all their new product releases to within 2 months of each other and before the crucial last quarter? Surely this will be close to the iPhone release cycle unless they bring that forward to July/August.