Apple has dropped the number of Vision Pro units that it plans to ship in 2024, going from an expected 700 to 800k units to just 400k to 450k units, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Orders have been scaled back before the Vision Pro has launched in markets outside of the United States, which Kuo says is a sign that demand in the U.S. has "fallen sharply beyond expectations." As a result, Apple is expected to take a "conservative view" of headset demand when the Vision Pro launches in additional countries.
Kuo previously said that Apple will introduce the Vision Pro in new markets before the June Worldwide Developers Conference, which suggests that we could see it available in additional areas in the next month or so.
Apple is expecting Vision Pro shipments to decline year-over-year in 2025 compared to 2024, and the company is said to be "reviewing and adjusting" its headset product roadmap. Kuo does not believe there will be a new Vision Pro model in 2025, an adjustment to a prior report suggesting a modified version of the Vision Pro would enter mass production late next year.
In a February report, Kuo said that Apple was working to improve the efficiency of production and supply change management, with little change to the product specifications and user experience. At the time, Kuo estimated that we would not see a Vision Pro with significant updates until 2027.
Kuo believes that Apple needs to work to address the lack of key applications, price, and comfort without impacting user experience. Poor Vision Pro sales is expected to impact the growth of pancake lenses and the adoption of microOLED display technology in small-sized consumer electronics.
