The global memory shortage that has already squeezed Mac mini and Mac Studio supply is now set to weigh heavily on the broader PC market, with IDC forecasting an 11.3% decline in global shipments for 2026.
According to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, conditions are expected to worsen progressively through the fourth quarter, when shipments are forecast to fall 20% year-over-year, with no meaningful relief expected before the end of 2027. Average selling prices are rising and PC manufacturers are struggling to maintain full product portfolios.
The first quarter of 2026 offered a deceptively encouraging signal, with shipments growing 3% versus the same period last year, but that strength was largely artificial; both consumer and commercial buyers pulled purchases forward ahead of anticipated price increases and availability constraints. Some of that first quarter momentum is carrying into the second quarter, but the remaining quarters are expected to deteriorate. IDC forecasts average selling price growth of 17% in 2026, and even as memory capacity expands over the next two years, pricing is unlikely to return to 2025 levels. TrendForce previously warned that surging memory and CPU costs could push mainstream laptop prices up by nearly 40% this year.
Against that backdrop, Apple's MacBook Neo has driven stronger-than-expected notebook demand and prompted IDC to revise its notebook forecast upward. Launched in March at $599, the MacBook Neo pairs the A18 Pro chip with 8GB of memory and targets the sub-$700 notebook segment. This market accounts for approximately 75 million units annually, nearly 40% of total notebook volume, which is a tier historically dominated by Windows and ChromeOS devices.
The MacBook Neo's competitive ripple effects cut both ways. IDC said the device is "putting real pressure on the entire PC ecosystem," and expects rivals to respond with new silicon, a more efficient OS from Microsoft, and aggressive promotional pricing. The competitive pressure from the MacBook Neo is providing a partial offset to broader price increases, keeping some low-cost notebook options alive, though the overall average selling price trajectory remains firmly upward.
While rising memory costs are pushing many PC vendors toward higher-priced systems or forcing specification cuts to defend lower price points, Apple has moved in the opposite direction. The memory shortage has had a more direct impact on Apple's higher-end Mac models, with Mac mini and Mac Studio models seeing configuration cuts and significant shipping delays as the company struggles to secure supply.
