The MacRumors Show: 2024 Apple Rumor Q&A

Vision Pro will fail until it can be made at 20% of the weight, volume and price.

i have enough trouble coping with day to day reality let alone forking out big $ for a modified reality or spatial computing or whatever you want to call it … ;)

Ok, you’re certainly entitled to your opinion, remember people are happily spending up to 2k on a smartphone today…
It’s going to be a long road and only time will tell but there is huge potential with this

Most people spend around $999.. in fact even the US average is around $550-650 I think.. and most of those people use smartphone as their only computing device. So taking all that in account, the comparison with a smartphone is not just unfair, its also incorrect.

Also until it becomes its own category, the Vision Pro is going to be perceived as a VR Set.

Total VR Set Sales in 2023 were only 7.5 Million. Of this 7.5M, Around 5.5M are Meta's Oculus sets. So considering that Apple doesn't really have a gaming console to tie this up with.. we'll be really surprised if Apple sells even a Million of these sets at this price and in this form.

I'm not saying the product doesn't show promise.. I'm just saying that the top down approach for a product we don't know we need may not work for the mass market. Do remember that most Apple Premium products like Watch Ultra, iPad Pro and iPhone Pro Max took the bottom up approach.. in fact the iPhone X, no matter how iconic had underwhelming sales.

Vision Pro will fail until it can be made at 20% of the weight, volume and price.

The iPhone X didn't have underwhelming sales at all. It sold less units than the iPhone 7 (1M in the first quarter if I recall correctly), but considering that price increased significantly and there was another model launched at the same time (iPhone 8), that was already forecasted. In fact, I remember that was one of the most extraordinary years for Apple (beating guidance by a lot). Low (or lower) doesn't equal underwhelming, i.e. AirPods Max probably sells in low quantities but it's a big success in its context. If Apple sells 1M Vision Pro, it wouldn't be a failure (although in this case I think it will be constrained by supply and not demand).

iPhone X was a huge disappointment for Apple. The whole X and XS Series just ended up confusing the buyers. This is why it was dumped completely within 2 years and Apple brought the iPhone 11 and 11 Pro and simplified the whole process with a Good Phone and an even better Phone.. instead of a Great Phone and a not so great Phone.

Apple can only make a million of them within the next year so that is fine. They are supply chain constrained at 500K per year and they have probably been stockpiling for a year. Higher production then that is still years away.

I meant Apple can only sell 1 Million of those, in their lifetime, and that would be a dream run for the product. Realistically it would be a miracle if they even push 100K of those toys.

I'm curious to see what'll happen. It looks like a fascinating product I don't need, but would like to play with.