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Apple Dodges Question on More Price Hikes as Memory Costs Climb

Apple expects memory costs to continue to increase in the December quarter and beyond, CEO John Ternus said during today's earnings call. Ternus, COO Sabih Khan, and CFO Kevan Parekh all commented on Apple's struggle with memory.

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"What we're seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented," said Ternus. He said Apple saw higher memory costs in the September quarter, and the December quarter will be worse. "Looking beyond the December quarter, we see the pricing for memory purchases continuing to increase," he said.

Apple was able to offset September costs by using memory it stockpiled at lower prices and securing lower prices on some non-memory components. Apple expects the same factors to cover some of the December increases, along with price increases on iPads, Macs, and iPhones in June and September.

An analyst asked if prices could increase again, but Khan, who took the question, avoided offering a direct answer. Parekh said Apple's price increases were done "reluctantly" and the company is trying to balance the impact.

I think what we try to do is evaluate, and in doing that, we evaluate the unit's revenue margin, and we're really being thoughtful and deliberate at evaluating kind of the short-term and long-term considerations. And we really believe we're balancing this well.

Ternus said Apple expects a declining benefit from pre-purchasing memory over time. Apple's inventory more than doubled year over year to $14.5 billion, which suggests Apple is buying up memory before prices go up yet again. "As we work to improve supply, our manufacturing purchase obligations have increased by $33 billion from June to the September quarter, which you'll see in our annual filing when it comes out tomorrow," he said.

Apple expects gross margin to drop from 47.9 percent in the September quarter to 45 to 46 percent in the December quarter, primarily because of higher memory costs, plus some Siri AI costs. Mac and iPad supplies will be constrained in the December quarter because of memory issues.

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Top Rated Comments

1 week ago

Start build your own memory factories already. The news alone will have an impact.
I believe the reluctance is getting stuck with a factory that they don't need once the bubble pops. They are trying to wait it out like so many of us.
Score: 23 Votes (Like | Disagree)
klasma Avatar
1 week ago

Start build your own memory factories already. The news alone will have an impact.
Apple doesn’t have the expertise (and the patent portfolio) for that, AND it would take a couple of years even if they had it. It already takes the established players 2-3 years to get a new fab up to production. There’s a reason why no new players are entering the field, except for the Chinese who still haven’t quite caught up after many years.
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)
1 week ago
Start building your own memory factories already. The news alone will have an impact.
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)
cateye Avatar
1 week ago

I knew this would be posted. I remember the same "logic" about GPUs in 2015.
Which they still don't make, TSMC makes them (along with the rest of the SoC). There are lots and lots of chips, some even more of a commodity than memory, on a Mac or iPhone or iPad motherboard. You know how many of them Apple makes, despite all of the shortages and production problems that have roiled the semiconductor industry long before Sam Altman came along? None. They make none of them.

Apple's margins rely on outsourcing. They may find some creative way for someone else to make the memory they need (you can be assured they continue to work angles to get Chinese memory somehow), but they won't own the factories to make it.
Score: 10 Votes (Like | Disagree)
1 week ago
I think it's just as likely that the AI bubble pops and Apple gets an eventual tailwind from the coming glut of memory. The warning signs are already flashing (pun unintended) all over the place. The tech-focused Shanghai STAR50 index has dumped 40% of its value since July, shedding trillions of RMB (almost $500 billion USD). And with China's debt levels pushing 300% of GDP, the CCP is not in a position for a bailout.

I picked up a nice tranche of Apple stock on the way down this afternoon, fortifying my long position. I'm confident that Apple is going to be the best counter-trade in the Magnificent 7 when all of these AI companies hit a brick wall. And their massive and ever-growing install base is going to be vital to delivering to consumers whatever AI that remains when the dust settles.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
6 days ago at 08:04 pm

I believe the reluctance is getting stuck with a factory that they don't need once the bubble pops. They are trying to wait it out like so many of us.
It is a bad idea. It isn't just getting stuck with a factory. That's just the end result of a very expensive multi-year process.

Apple does not own any fabs. It has no current experience in operating semiconductor fabs. In fact, Apple outsources almost all of its hardware manufacturing and assembly.

So, building a memory plant means obtaining the IP and talent to know how to manufacture memory. They would have to acquire the process technology through licensing, acquisition, or strategic alliance. Besides building the physical plant, there would be supply chains to build and raw materials (some of which are in short supply due to instability in the Middle East) to negotiate for.

Apple could certainly afford the $15–20 billion investment it would take. But it would also take 4 to 6 years before they could reach commercially viable production. The operation and fab process would likely not approach Micron's or Samsung's efficiency for years, given their decades of experience optimizing their yields. Given the cyclical nature of the memory market, Apple would most likely find itself producing memory at above-market prices.

So "getting stuck with a factory" means spending tens of billions of dollars only to face the decision of shutting down the fab because it is losing money on every chip it produces.
Score: 7 Votes (Like | Disagree)
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